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Post by IslandersGM on Aug 23, 2017 18:39:47 GMT -5
2017: 50.75fpts 0.83 (61games) tier 3 2016: 58.75fpts 1.4 (42games) tier 1 2015: 84fpts 1.24 (68games) tier 1 2014: 83.5fpts 1.33 (63games) tier 1
Scored all of 10 goals last year. Going to another team that can't score (LA). Has missed roughly a 1/4 season per year, except the year he missed half. Can be great when healthy, but sure wasn't last year. Makes me wonder if that wrist injury took away his shot. 10 goals is putrid by his standards. Injury + major drop off make this a tricky one, but I have to pay him something resembling his potential to get back to tier 1 (for the 60ish games he might play, lol)
1 year deal (obviously) @ 3million. Way too much for the 0.83, but he has a history of production when healthy.
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Post by PanthersGM on Aug 24, 2017 8:46:36 GMT -5
His 4 seasons average out to 4M... 0.83 production brings him down but with his 1.4 season was only 2 years ago and it was 35th best in the league among all skaters. With guys like Perry, Giroux, Spezza, Carter, Hall etc.
Going to a better team... and his ice time went down 2 full minutes last season. If it comes back up he could be a productive player again.
0-1.
Would approve 3.5M
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Post by IslandersGM on Aug 24, 2017 12:06:15 GMT -5
played 42 games at 1.4 missed last 40 with wrist injury, then came back and scored 10goals. Could be a correlation there. Which when added to the fact he has missed an entire season's worth (94 games) of playing time within the last 4 seasons makes him well below his 2016 #s value. His Fpt/g #s are great, but the injury factor makes his overall Fpt value to a team significantly less.
2017: 50.75fpts = 0.62/g if you count on a guy to play 82
2016: 58.75fpts = 0.72 if counted on to play 82 games
2015: 84fpts = 1.02 if an 82 game player
2014: 83.5fpts = 1.02 if an 82 game player
That's obviously not to show his monetary worth, the TAB will decide that, but it does show how much injury affects his value to a team. To me it's not a dropoff discount (we have a rule for that), it's a dropoff discount and an injury discount, and a "is this his new normal due to the injury?" discount.
With Cammalleri it's not a question of his fpts/g when healthy, those numbers speak for themselves, it's can he ever be healthy (hasn't hit 70 games once in the last 4 seasons), and is the dropoff injury related?
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Post by PanthersGM on Aug 24, 2017 14:48:23 GMT -5
played 42 games at 1.4 missed last 40 with wrist injury, then came back and scored 10goals. Could be a correlation there. Which when added to the fact he has missed an entire season's worth (94 games) of playing time within the last 4 seasons makes him well below his 2016 #s value. His Fpt/g #s are great, but the injury factor makes his overall Fpt value to a team significantly less. 2017: 50.75fpts = 0.62/g if you count on a guy to play 82
2016: 58.75fpts = 0.72 if counted on to play 82 games
2015: 84fpts = 1.02 if an 82 game player
2014: 83.5fpts = 1.02 if an 82 game playerThat's obviously not to show his monetary worth, the TAB will decide that, but it does show how much injury affects his value to a team. To me it's not a dropoff discount (we have a rule for that), it's a dropoff discount and an injury discount, and a "is this his new normal due to the injury?" discount. With Cammalleri it's not a question of his fpts/g when healthy, those numbers speak for themselves, it's can he ever be healthy (hasn't hit 70 games once in the last 4 seasons), and is the dropoff injury related? Unfortunately it doesnt work like that or i would have got Hanzal for league minimum. Its why we use ftp/g not ftp/82 games.
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Post by IslandersGM on Aug 24, 2017 20:12:22 GMT -5
Was just a tool to illustrate his crazy bad injury history (which I feel is being brushed aside) plus a massive dropoff has to at least be considered though. Thornton has similar numbers coming off a 1.70 and nowhere near an injury history like Cammi pants. 4 is borderline ridiculous as the fact he misses a minimum of 1/4 of a season each year is just waved off like a Blackhawks' offside.
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Post by PanthersGM on Aug 25, 2017 10:12:09 GMT -5
i would take in account if his injury history played into whether or not he had a really bad year or a really good one. He has had 4 injury season in a row and in 3 of them he put up tier 1 production.
And injuries are playing a factor because if he had three 82 game seasons of tier 1 production and one 82 game season of tier 3 then i would be asking for a lot more than 3.5M.
Not sure what this means as i am asking for a bump from 3M to 3.5M because of three straight tier 1 seasons - going from a 5M player to a 3.5M player based on 1 season is a pretty significant discount.
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Post by IslandersGM on Aug 25, 2017 22:23:43 GMT -5
sorry read the 4million at the top when you put his avg. (If Thornton was a 4.5mil after a 1.70 healthy though, I doubt he'd be a 5mil for anyone). Anyway, enough derailing this with our debating. We're not as far off as I thought. Needs more votes tho.
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Post by JacketsGM on Aug 27, 2017 19:11:48 GMT -5
0-2
would approve 3.5m
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Post by Oilers GM on Aug 28, 2017 0:08:32 GMT -5
0-3.
$3.5M works for me.
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